EUR/GBP Weekly Fundamental Analysis – January 11-15, 2016 -Forecast

Posted By FxNewInfo.com Posted On 10 January 2016

Weekly Analysis and Recommendations

 

The EUR/GBP soared 43 points on Friday to trade at 0.7524 as the euro recovered earlier losses and the pound traded at its lowest level in years. Sterling also reached its weakest in almost three months against the euro.

 

Chancellor of the exchequer George Osborne said a “dangerous cocktail” of global threats face the British economy this year and warned against complacency.

 

Those perils were highlighted this week by turmoil in China, which hit global markets and led billionaire George Soros to warn the current environment has similarities to the financial crisis in 2008.

 

Manufacturing and services data that missed economists’ estimates this week signaled the UK’s domestic economy was faltering, and this may result in the Bank of England keeping its benchmark interest rate unchanged for longer.

 

Markets are not fully pricing in a quarter-point increase to the Bank of England’s 0.5% main rate until after February 2017, while ING Bank and Goldman Sachs have this week both pushed calls for a Bank of England rate increase to the last quarter of 2016 from previous estimates of the second quarter.

 

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

 

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Major Economic Events for the week:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Time

 

 

Cur.

 

 

Imp.

 

 

Event

 

 

Actual

 

 

Forecast

 

 

Previous

 

 

 

Tuesday, January 12, 2016

 

 

 

  GBP

 

 

 

Manufacturing Production

 

 

 

 

 

0.1%

 

 

-0.4%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Wednesday, January 13, 2016

 

 

 

  CNY

 

 

 

Trade Balance (Dec)

 

 

 

 

 

53.00B

 

 

54.10B

 

 

 

 

 

 

Thursday, January 14, 2016

 

 

 

 

 

  AUD

 

 

 

Employment Change (Dec)

 

 

 

 

 

-12.5K

 

 

71.4K

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  GBP

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision (Jan)

 

 

 

 

 

0.50%

 

 

0.50%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Friday, January 15, 2016

 

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

 

 

Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec)

 

 

 

 

 

0.2%

 

 

0.4%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

 

 

PPI (MoM) (Dec)

 

 

 

 

 

-0.1%

 

 

0.3%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec)

 

 

 

 

 

0.1%

 

 

0.2%

 

   

 

Upcoming Government Bond Auctions

 

Date Time Country 

 

Jan 12 11:00 Austria Holds bond auction

 

Jan 12 11:00 Netherlands Euro 1-1.5bn 2.5% 2033 DSL

 

Jan 12 11:30 UK 0.125% 2046 Inflation-linked Gilt

 

Jan 12 n/a UK Announces details of Gilt auction on Jan 20

 

Jan 12 19:00 US Holds 3-year note auction

 

Jan 13 11:05 Norway Holds bond auction

 

Jan 13 11:10 Italy Holds BTP

 

Jan 13 11:30 Germany Euro 5bn Feb 2026 Bund

 

Jan 13 19:00 US Holds 10-year note auction

 

Jan 14 10:30 Spain Auctions Bonos/Obligaciones

 

Jan 14 19:00 US Holds 30-year bond auction

 

Jan 14 N/A US Announces details of 10-yr TIPS auction on Jan 21

 

Jan 18 11:00 Belgium Holds OLO auction

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